It's not an on/off switch. When people say 'Look, it'll happen no matter what we do", that is, to put it bluntly, pants. There is a whole range of severity of climate change. The Paris Agreement was supposed to aim to keep us well below 2 degrees warming. Particularly vulnerable countries, like Pacific islands, argued to keep it below 1.5C warming. NASA's data for 2018 shows 0.8C warming so far. This has already had terrible effects. We're currently on track for somewhere between 3 and 5C warming by 2100.
Numbers, numbers. What do they mean?
They mean people dying, when otherwise they wouldn't have died, and suffering terribly. A huge increase, for example, in babies and very young children dying from malaria, which is a disease I don't think we in malaria-free countries, with access to vaccines, really fully appreciate the horror of. At +2C an additional 40 to 60 million people could be exposed to malaria. At +2C 1.5 billion people each year will live in areas without access to usable water. This is the temperature increase we are pretending to aim at. In fact, even the measures laid out in the Paris Agreement don't leave us anywhere near +2C. If we followed them (and we aren't), we'd end up with warming of at least +3C.
But Elon Musk.
Technology is not going to save us. We need technology, we need people developing solar, wind, tidal; we need people looking at fusion; we need to stop closing down nuclear plants when they're much the better option to the coal and gas that often ends up replacing them; we need to be exploring negative emissions technology and we need to be studying and debating the merits of geo-engineering. We need bio-tech. We need all the tools we can get our hands on. It's still not going to be enough, because we have to make massive changes immediately, and most of the possible tech solutions are still decades away.
We need to change our lifestyles.
We need to stop flying, because it is, far and away, the most flagrant waste of the CO2 budget that someone can do. We need to stop driving one to a car, in fact, we need to stop using private cars. We need to have diets that are mainly vegetarian. We need to stop buying things we don't need.
But this is - this is crazy-talk, isn't it? Give up flying? How could anyone possibly do that? Take the bus? Walk? Not buy something unless I actually need it? It would be like living back in the Olden Days, with mud floors and hair shirts and nothing to do but weave and watch hangings.
Except that it's not. Some stuff in that list you might not be able to give up. You may have a small kid who you need to drop off at creche on your way to work, and the only way to do that is to drive. Or you might live on the opposite side of the planet from your relatives. But if your flying is just for holidays, maybe you can give it up. You can try it out, and see how long you stick it. If it's for work, you might find that your boss is actually ok with you having online meetings instead - you could see if that's the case. It's something they can brag about and put in environmental statements. Deciding not to buy stuff unless you really need it is actually great. In the end, it saves you money and saves you tidying. Here's the late David McKay:
About 50% of current CO2e emissions are due to the activities of the top 10% emitters, so a change in the lifestyle of the wealthiest has the capacity to make significant changes, fast. And on a global scale, 'wealthy' includes a lot of people who think of themselves as fairly average or maybe even a bit broke. In 2013 Ireland had the third-highest per capita emissions in the EU. As the CSO said, "At 12.8 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per capita in 2013, Ireland’s emissions were 45% higher than the EU average of 8.8 tonnes."
We can make a difference. Climate change is not an on/off switch, it's a sliding scale - it does matter if you add to it or not. And we're social creatures, habits spread among us. Already some of my friends have given up flying because I did and I told them why. If you find blocks to low-CO2 choices, and there's something the government can do to enable you to make better choices, then tell your TD or local councillor. Because if they make that change - make a cycle-path safer, for example - that will not only enable you, it will enable other people.
Climate change is bad. It's devastating, what is happening and what will happen. But giving up flying, going vegetarian (or mostly), waiting for the bus, not buying some gadget - that's actually not that bad.
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